Donald Trump called Elon Musk’s plans for a new political party “ridiculous” – but experts say the announcement shows just how much trouble the billionaire could cause for Republicans trying to hold onto their slim control of Congress.
Musk launched his “America Party” over the weekend, right after Trump signed a massive spending bill that Musk has heavily criticised for adding to the national debt.
While Musk hasn’t shared many policy details yet, he’s expected to target specific House and Senate races in next year’s midterm elections. He’ll likely focus on Republicans who voted for Trump’s spending bill after previously talking about being careful with government money.
“Elon Musk’s America Party could really shake up the 2026 midterms, especially for Republicans,” said Matt Shoemaker, a political analyst who used to run for Congress as a Republican and worked in intelligence.
“Republicans barely control Congress right now, so they should definitely be worried.”
Musk has money and influence
Musk is the richest person in the world. He had been talking about starting a new party for weeks and even ran a social media poll in June. About 80% of the 5.6 million people who responded supported the idea.
Unlike other third parties that have tried before, Musk’s party would have almost unlimited money. Plus, Musk himself is popular with many young American men who see him as a brilliant outsider and celebrity.
“Musk appeals to independent voters who are fed up with politics, and younger, tech-savvy people who might normally vote Republican in close races,” Shoemaker told AFP.
Money doesn’t always win elections
Musk is worth about $405 billion and has already shown he’s willing to spend big on politics. He gave $277 million to Trump’s 2024 campaign.
But his recent effort in Wisconsin politics shows that money and fame don’t guarantee success. He spent $20 million trying to get his preferred candidate elected to the state supreme court, and that person lost badly.
There’s also the challenge of winning over regular voters across America who aren’t part of Musk’s Silicon Valley tech world.
Musk used to be popular with many Americans, but his approval ratings dropped after he joined Trump’s administration as a cost-cutting advisor.
According to respected pollster Nate Silver, Musk’s approval rating is now at -18.1, which is actually worse than Trump’s -6.6.
“The Republican base and Trump supporters are pretty much the same group these days,” said Flavio Hickel, a political science professor at Washington College in Maryland.
“Trump supporters have stuck with him through all kinds of controversies. It’s hard to imagine Musk pulling votes away from people who still support Donald Trump.”
Third parties rarely win
While many politicians have left the Republican and Democratic parties to become independents, third parties almost never win elections in modern America.
Only two minor parties have won Senate seats in the last 100 years: the Conservative Party of New York State in the 1970s and the Farmer–Labor Party in the 1930s.
Smaller parties had more success in the House of Representatives in the early 1900s, but have only won one seat since the 1950s.
Political experts point out that third-party candidates face many obstacles just to get on the ballot. Each state has different rules about things like how many signatures you need, filing fees, and requirements about age and residency.
“Remember the ‘No Labels’ party from early 2024?” said veteran political strategist Matt Klink. “They were supposed to offer a middle-ground choice for voters, but they completely fell apart.”
Could still cause problems for Republicans
Most analysts agree that winning congressional seats would be very difficult for Musk’s party. But they say he could still hurt Trump by taking votes away from vulnerable Republicans or spending money to support primary challengers against candidates Trump prefers.
“Elon’s party probably won’t win seats, but it could cost Republicans a lot,” said Evan Nierman, who runs the crisis PR firm Red Banyan.
“In close races, even losing a few percentage points to a third party could flip control of important districts.”
What this means
The big question is whether Musk can turn his online popularity and massive wealth into real political power. Even if his party doesn’t win elections, it could make life much harder for Republicans who are already dealing with very narrow majorities in Congress.
For Trump, having a former ally with unlimited resources potentially working against him adds another layer of complexity to an already challenging political landscape.
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